Quarterback performance is often judged by the final box score, but just as important as the overall stat line is when and how the player produces those numbers.
That’s why rather than an overall evaluation of quarterback play, we’re going to focus solely on the game’s most important moments and use The Athletic’s Quarterback Reliability Index (QRI) to rank the NFL’s current primary starters in those situations.
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The QRI is a model that measures quarterback performance in high-leverage situations as a way to quantify the level to which a team relies on that player’s ability when it matters most. These high-level situations include third- and fourth-down plays and late-game sequences all while filtering out plays in which the in-game win probability is greater than 80% for either team. In other words, when the game is on the line, this metric attempts to evaluate how well a quarterback has gotten the job done.
Passing- and rushing-related metrics within the model include versions of:
- Expected points added (EPA)
- Success rate (play with a positive EPA is considered a successful play)
- Win probability added (WPA)
Using the metrics, the model calculates a rating similar to Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in baseball. The rating represents how many wins better the given QB has been than a replacement-level QB in the aforementioned high-leverage situations and then prorated over the course of a 17-game season.
For a more thorough evaluation, the index includes data from all games since the start of the 2022 season (for applicable players) with recent games weighted more heavily. Until more games are played, rookies and newer starters have smaller sample sizes and will be more susceptible to bigger swings. We’re solely including this season’s primary starting quarterbacks for a cleaner ranking.
NFL QB Reliability Index - Thru Week 13
* Rookie (only 2023 stats included)
Why has Gardner Minshew moved into the latest top 10?
Colts QB Gardner Minshew has helped engineer a four-game winning streak that has Indianapolis in the current AFC playoff field. Per nflfastR data, in my QRI calculations, Minshew ranks second among qualified quarterbacks in Win Probability Added, behind only the Eagles’ Jalen Hurts.
Though none of Minshew’s other metrics are much better than league average (he does rank 13th in EPA per dropback among qualified QBs since Week 7), Minshew is making the most of the “winning plays” in crunch time and that has moved him into the current top 10. — Austin Mock, NFL staff writer
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(Top photo of Gardner Minshew: Michael Hickey / Getty Images)
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